What Past Events Tell Us About World Cup Promises
New Jersey is preparing to host one of the largest sporting events in the world.
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is being promoted as a once-in-a-generation opportunity for the New York and New Jersey region, bringing millions of visitors, global attention, and billions in projected economic impact. Supporters point to those numbers as proof that the investment will be worth it. Maybe it will be, but we’ve heard this before.
When Super Bowl XLVIII came to MetLife Stadium, it was accompanied by similar projections: hundreds of millions in economic impact, a surge of visitors, and a major boost for the region. In the lead-up, estimates in the $500 to $600 million range were widely cited.
Those figures were ultimately acknowledged as estimates, based on economic modeling rather than direct revenue. A full accounting of the actual impact was never publicly detailed in a way that matched the confidence of the original projections. What was clear, however, were the real, measurable costs: millions spent on transportation, public safety, and foregone tax revenue.
At the same time, the event exposed operational strain: particularly in transportation. With heavy reliance on rail service, tens of thousands of fans were funneled through a single system. While the game itself went off without issue, getting people home proved far more difficult, with long delays and overcrowding after the final whistle.
That pattern isn’t unique to the World Cup. Other major events hosted at MetLife Stadium have been accompanied by similarly large projections. WrestleMania, for example, was estimated to generate more than $165 million in economic impact for the region in 2019, following a $101 million estimate for its 2013 event. Like most economic impact figures, those numbers are based on modeled spending and assumptions about visitor behavior offering a broad picture of activity, but not a precise accounting of costs, benefits, or how that impact is distributed.
These events are a warning for FIFA and the region: while large-scale events bring some (often exaggerated) economic opportunity, they also test the limits of the systems that support them.
That context matters, now as the World Cup is being framed at a much larger, regional scale. Projections of economic impact ($2-3 billion) combine activity across New York City, North Jersey, and surrounding areas. Those numbers are meant to capture everything from hotel bookings and restaurant spending to transportation and retail.But like past events, those projections rely on assumptions: how many visitors will come, how much they will spend, and how much of that activity is truly new, rather than displaced from existing tourism.
And just as importantly, those numbers don’t always reflect the full cost side of the equation. Public agencies, particularly in New Jersey, are already preparing for significant operational demands. Transportation systems will carry a major share of the load. Security, staffing, and infrastructure will require coordination across multiple levels of government. And unlike projected economic impact, those costs are not hypothetical, they are real, immediate, and measurable.
At the same time, New Jersey has authorized spending across departments and agencies in “amounts as are determined to be necessary” to support hosting the event. That flexibility may be intended to ensure success, but it also makes it harder to define the total public commitment upfront.
Taken together, the pattern is familiar.
Large events generate large projections but the costs are more concrete, and more widely shared. And the gap between the two is not always clear until long after the event has passed.
None of this means the World Cup won’t be a success. But success on the field and success on paper are not always the same thing.
Source:
New Jersey Transit. (2014). Super Bowl XLVIII operational and financial summary.
https://www.njtransit.com
New Jersey State Police. (2014). Super Bowl XLVIII security cost reporting.
https://www.nj.gov/njsp
New Jersey Sports and Exposition Authority. (2022). Board meeting minutes and event impact discussions.
https://www.njsea.com
Baade, R. A., & Matheson, V. A. (2011). Financing professional sports facilities. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 25(3), 95–114.
Matheson, V. A. (2006). Mega-events: The effect of the world’s biggest sporting events on local, regional, and national economies. College of the Holy Cross, Department of Economics Working Paper Series.
Enigma Research Corporation. (2019). Economic impact of WrestleMania 35 on the New York/New Jersey region.
Enigma Research Corporation. (2013). Economic impact of WrestleMania 29 on the New York/New Jersey region.FIFA. (2023). FIFA World Cup 2026 host city and regional economic impact projections.
https://www.fifa.com
