With electricity rates rising year after year and the state’s increasing reliance upon importing energy from the PJM grid in the spotlight, the public conversation has shifted towards how New Jersey can bring electricity rates back down and be in control of its future by becoming energy independent. 

To achieve this energy independence, New Jersey must generate an additional 6.9 million megawatt-hours (MWh) of electricity annually to replace its current imports from the regional PJM grid. This article is a high-level review of the energy technology options currently available. 

A key metric in this analysis is the capacity factor, which measures a power plant’s actual energy output over time compared to its maximum possible output. For intermittent renewables like wind and solar, batteries are added to store energy and provide a more reliable supply. The scenarios below assume a battery system capable of providing 4 hours of power at the full rated capacity of the generating facility, a common industry standard for grid support.

Large-Scale Nuclear

This approach involves building a traditional, large-scale nuclear power plant for consistent, carbon-free power.

• Capacity Factor: Nuclear plants are designed for continuous operation and only shut down for planned refueling and maintenance every 18-24 months. This incredible reliability means a relatively small amount of installed capacity is needed to produce a massive amount of energy. Because of this, nuclear plants have the highest capacity factor of any energy source, typically around 92%. 
• Power & Cost: The state would need one new large-scale reactor (approx. 1,100 MW). The upfront capital cost is enormous, ranging from $9 billion to $15 billion, with a long-term electricity cost of $140 – $220 per MWh.
• Land & Time: The plant and its exclusion zone would require 1,000 to 2,000 acres. The entire project would take 10 to 15 years.

Solar + Battery Storage

This renewable path involves building vast solar farms paired with large-scale battery systems to ensure a reliable power supply.

• Capacity Factor: Due to night, clouds, and weather, the capacity factor for utility-scale solar in New Jersey is low, averaging around 18%.
• Power & Cost: To compensate, the state would need to install approximately 4,400 MW of solar capacity backed by a battery system that could provide 4 hours of power (17,600 MWh). The technology and construction costs are high, estimated at $11 billion to $12 billion. This figure does not include land acquisition.
• Land & Time: This option is the most land-intensive, requiring over 25,500 acres. For comparison, Hudson County is 29,562 acres. The complete development and construction timeline would likely be 5 to 10 years.

Offshore Wind + Battery Storage

New Jersey has a significant offshore wind resource with stronger, more consistent winds than on land. Batteries would firm up this power for the grid.

• Capacity Factor: Offshore wind has a much higher capacity factor than onshore, averaging around 45%. This means each turbine can generate more power more consistently.
• Power & Cost: The state would need about 1,750 MW of new offshore capacity, backed by a battery system that could provide 4 hours of power (7,000 MWh). The offshore wind portion would cost $7B – $9B, with batteries adding another $2.5B – $3B. The total upfront cost is estimated at $9.5 billion to $12 billion.
• Land & Time: While it requires no land, the turbines would occupy a sea lease area of approximately 150,000 acres. The complex development process takes 8 to 10 years.

Small Modular Reactors (SMRs)

SMRs represent a newer, more compact nuclear technology that is not yet in wide commercial operation but promises faster construction.

• Capacity Factor: SMRs are designed to achieve the same high reliability as large-scale reactors, with a projected capacity factor of around 92%.
• Power & Cost: The state would need a plant with 11 to 12 SMR modules (totaling about 860 MW). The projected upfront capital cost is $7 billion to $9 billion, with an estimated electricity cost of $110 to $180 per MWh.
• Land & Time: SMRs are very land-efficient, requiring only 35 to 50 acres. The projected timeline is estimated at 6 to 8 years.

Coal with Carbon Capture (Scrubbing)

This scenario involves building a modern coal-fired power plant equipped with Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) technology, or “scrubbers,” to capture up to 90% of CO2 emissions.

• Capacity Factor: Like nuclear, coal plants are designed for baseload power and run at a very high capacity factor, around 85%.
• Power & Cost: The state would need to add about 925 MW of new coal capacity. The CCS technology is extremely expensive to build and operate, bringing the total upfront capital cost to between $6.5 billion and $8.5 billion. The high cost of the technology and the energy penalty to run it result in an electricity cost of $90 – $150 per MWh.
• Land & Time: A coal plant, including its fuel storage and CCS infrastructure, would require 1,200 to 2,000 acres. The project timeline, including complex permitting, would be 6 to 8 years.

Onshore Wind + Battery Storage

This scenario involves building traditional wind farms on land within the state, backed up by large-scale batteries to improve reliability.

• Capacity Factor: Onshore wind in the Mid-Atlantic region has a moderate capacity factor of around 35%, limited by variable wind speeds on land.
• Power & Cost: New Jersey would need to build about 2,250 MW of new wind capacity (or ~640 3.5 MW turbines), paired with a battery system that could provide 4 hours of power (9,000 MWh). The wind farm would cost $4B – $5.5B, with the batteries adding another $3B – $3.5B. The total upfront cost would be between $7 billion and $9 billion.
• Land & Time: Wind farms require significant space, though most land can still be used for agriculture. This scenario would require 50,000 to 100,000 acres. The project timeline would be 4 to 7 years.

Natural Gas

This scenario uses a conventional fossil fuel technology to build one large or several smaller combined-cycle natural gas plants.

• Capacity Factor: Natural gas plants have a moderate capacity factor, averaging around 56%, as their output is often adjusted to meet demand.
• Power & Cost: New Jersey would need to add approximately 1,400 MW of new capacity. The capital cost is relatively low at $1.8 billion to $2.5 billion. The electricity cost is also low, typically $45 to $80 per MWh, but this comes with fuel price volatility and carbon emissions.
• Land & Time: The required land would be between 700 and 1,400 acres. The project timeline is relatively fast at 4 to 6 years.

Summary

Notes

Land & Time estimates are best-case scenarios. 

This analysis does not incorporate the expected load growth from population growth, AI/datacenter growth, and increased electrification of transportation and buildings.

* Total Upfront Cost for the Solar + Battery scenario does not include land acquisition, which could add over $1.2 billion to the total.

** Onshore Wind + Battery acreage represents the total leased area of the project, which is the land over which the developer has rights to place turbines. The physical footprint—the land actually occupied by turbine foundations, access roads, and substations—is only about 1-2% of that total.

References

Lazard. (2024). Lazard’s Levelized Cost of Energy Analysis+—Version 17.0. https://www.lazard.com/media/20jht5xl/lazards-levelized-cost-of-energyplus-version-170.pdf

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). (2024, August). Land Values 2024 Summary. National Agricultural Statistics Service. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/land0824.pdf

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2024, June). Electricity Data Browser: New Jersey, Net Generation and Retail Sales, All Sectors, Annual 2023. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2024). Electric Power Annual, Table 6.07.B. Capacity Factors for Utility Scale Generators Not Primarily Using Fossil Fuels. https://www.eia.gov/electricity/annual/html/epa_06_07_b.html

U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). (2024). Capital Cost and Performance Characteristics for New Generating Capacity in the Annual Energy Outlook 2024. https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/assumptions/pdf/table_8.2.pdf

U.S. Office of Nuclear Energy. (2023, December). 3 Advanced Reactor Designs to Watch in 2024. Department of Energy. https://www.energy.gov/nuclear/articles/3-advanced-reactor-designs-watch-2024

Please leave this field empty

Sign up and get the latest infrastructure news in your inbox every week.

We don’t spam! Read our privacy policy for more info.

Check your inbox or spam folder to confirm your subscription.

Please leave this field empty

Sign up and get the latest infrastructure news in your inbox every week.

We don’t spam! Read our privacy policy for more info.

Check your inbox or spam folder to confirm your subscription.