The PJM Load Forecast Report, published in January 2024 and revised on February 1, 2024, provides a comprehensive analysis of projected electricity demand across the PJM region, including specific insights relevant to New Jersey. The report details long-term forecasts for peak loads, net energy, and the impact of evolving energy trends like distributed solar generation, battery storage, data center growth, electrification of the Port of New York & New Jersey, and plug-in electric vehicles.
The overall summer peak load growth for the PJM RTO is projected to average 1.6% per year over the next 10-year period and 1.6% over the next 15 years, with the winter peak load growth for PJM RTO projected to average 1.9% per year over the next 10-year period.
For the Eastern Mid-Atlantic (E-MAAC) region specifically, summer peak load is projected to grow by 0.7% over the next 10 years and winter peak load by 2.6% over the next 10 years.
The report forecasts significant load growth across New Jersey’s PJM zones.
JCP&L
JCP&L is projected to experience a summer peak load increase of 1.1% annually over the next 10 years (2024-2034), reaching 6,750 MW by 2034. Winter peak load growth for JCP&L is even more substantial, with a projected annual increase of 4.7% over the 2023/24-2033/34 period, reaching 6,040 MW by 2033/34.
PSE&G
Public Service Electric & Gas shows similar robust growth, with a forecasted summer peak load increase of 1.1% annually (2024-2034), reaching 11,193 MW by 2034. The winter peak for PSE&G is expected to rise by 3.8% annually (2023/24-2033/34), hitting 9,906 MW by 2033/34. Notably, the PSE&G zone has been specifically adjusted in this forecast to account for significant growth in data center load and port electrification, indicating a strategic shift in energy demand drivers within this area.
Rockland Electric Company
Rockland Electric Company, a smaller New Jersey zone, is projected to have a summer peak load annual growth of 0.3% (2024-2034), reaching 421 MW by 2034. Its winter peak growth is higher at 3.2% annually (2023/24-2033/34), forecasted to reach 308 MW.
Atlantic City Electric
Atlantic Electric is also expected to see growth, with a summer peak forecast to increase by 0.5% annually over the 2024-2034 period, reaching 2,715 MW by 2034, and a winter peak growing by 2.8% annually over 2023/24-2033/34 to 2,161 MW.
Load Management and Emerging Energy Trends
The report also details the role of load management programs in New Jersey, including “Capacity Performance,” “Summer Period” demand response, and Price Responsive Demand (PRD). These programs help PJM maintain grid reliability by coordinating load reductions during peak demand periods. For example, JCP&L’s total load management capacity for summer 2024 is listed at 107 MW, growing to 134 MW by 2039. PSE&G also shows substantial load management capabilities, starting at 231 MW in summer 2024 and increasing to 281 MW by 2039.
The integration of distributed energy resources is a key focus. Distributed solar generation is expected to contribute to load adjustments, with JCP&L seeing 282 MW of solar adjustment in 2024, growing to 458 MW by 2039. PSE&G has 426 MW in 2024, increasing to 695 MW by 2039. Distributed battery storage is also factored in, with smaller but growing adjustments; for instance, JCP&L’s battery storage adjustment increases from 2 MW in 2024 to 61 MW by 2039.
Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) are identified as a growing load component. JCP&L’s PEV adjustment for summer peak load starts at 53 MW in 2024 and is projected to reach 1,942 MW by 2039. PSE&G shows an even larger impact, with PEV adjustments rising from 60 MW in 2024 to 2,252 MW by 2039. These figures highlight the anticipated influence of transportation electrification on future electricity demand in New Jersey.
“This forecast reflects the accelerated growth that we discussed with our stakeholders throughout 2023, driven by the electrification of multiple sectors combined with consumer demands for technology…It also underscores the need to maintain and develop enough generation resources to serve that growing demand.” Kenneth S. Seiler, Sr. Vice President – Planning, PJM
SOURCE: https://insidelines.pjm.com/pjm-publishes-2024-long-term-load-forecast/
