“The Troubled Energy Transition: How to Find a Pragmatic Path Forward” discusses the complexities and challenges of transitioning from a hydrocarbon-dominated energy system to one based on renewable sources. The authors, Daniel Yergin, Peter Orszag, and Atul Arya, highlight that while global production of wind and solar energy has reached record levels, the share of hydrocarbons in the global primary energy mix has hardly changed, indicating that the growth of renewables is coming on top of conventional sources rather than replacing them.
“…what has been unfolding is not so much an “energy transition” as an “energy addition.” Rather than replacing conventional energy sources, the growth of renewables is coming on top of that of conventional sources.”
“The fundamental objective of the energy transition is to replace most of today’s energy system with a completely different system. Yet throughout history, no energy source, including traditional biomass of wood and waste, has declined globally in absolute terms over an extended period.”
The article observes that the energy transition is not proceeding as expected due to the realities of the global energy system. The authors argue that the transition will be more difficult, costly, and complicated than initially anticipated, and point out that past energy transitions have also been “energy additions,” with each new source adding to rather than eliminating prior sources.
“Part of the problem is sheer cost: many trillions of dollars, with great uncertainty as to who is to pay it. Part of the problem is the failure to appreciate that climate goals do not exist in a vacuum. They coexist with other objectives—from GDP growth and economic development to energy security and reducing local pollution—and are complicated by rising global tensions, both East-West and North-South.”
The authors note that the world is far from achieving the target of net-zero emissions by 2050, and there is no clear plan for delivering the massive investment required to do so. They highlight the need for a more pragmatic approach that considers economic growth, energy security, and energy access alongside climate goals.
“What is becoming clear is that the shift in the global energy system will not unfold in a linear or steady manner. Rather, it will be multidimensional—unfolding differently in different parts of the world, at different rates, with different mixes of fuels and technologies, subject to competing priorities and shaped by governments and companies establishing their own paths. That requires rethinking policies and investment in light of the complicated realities. For the energy transition is not just about energy; it is about rewiring and reengineering the entire global economy.”
The authors argue that the energy transition will unfold differently in different parts of the world, with varying rates, mixes of fuels and technologies, and competing priorities. And what is needed is a fundamental of priorities, policies, and investments in light of the complicated realities of the global energy system.
“Assuring that citizens have access to timely supplies of energy and electricity is essential for the well-being of populations. That means recognizing that oil and gas will play a larger role in the energy mix for a longer time than was anticipated a few years ago, which will require continuing new investment in both hydrocarbon supplies and infrastructure.”
“A global economy in transition depends on another transition—a shift from ‘big oil’ to ‘big shovels.’ That means much more mining and processing, driven by major new investments and resulting in much-expanded industrial activity. Yet the complexities surrounding mining and critical minerals represent another major constraint on the pace of the energy transition.”
Read the full article at Foreign Affairs: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/troubled-energy-transition-yergin-orszag-arya
